Every panel verdict ships with a confidence number. A confidence of 90 should mean "right roughly 90% of the time". This page checks whether that's true. The dashed diagonal is perfect calibration. Points above are underconfident; points below are overconfident. Bubble size scales with sample count.
Last 60 days of team panel verdicts. The bot is paper-trading. Forward window is 5 days. Win threshold is plus or minus 2%.
n is the count of verdicts in the band. res is how many had a matured 5-day return at run time. win% is the share that ended up correct. meanRet is the average return signed against the verdict thesis (positive = right side of the move). score = win% minus mean stated confidence; negative is overconfident, positive is underconfident.
| verdict | bucket | n | res | win% | meanRet | meanConf | score | flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | 60-69 | 2 | 2 | 0.0% | -5.84% | 66.0 | -66.0 | low n |
| BUY | 70-79 | 14 | 14 | 14.3% | -2.53% | 74.9 | -60.6 | low n |
| BUY | 80-84 | 4 | 4 | 0.0% | -5.80% | 82.0 | -82.0 | low n |
| BUY | 85-89 | 2 | 2 | 50.0% | -2.47% | 86.0 | -36.0 | low n |
| BUY | 90-100 | 1 | 0 | - | - | - | - | low n |
| AVOID | 70-79 | 12 | 11 | 54.5% | +3.37% | 77.5 | -23.0 | low n |
| AVOID | 80-84 | 77 | 67 | 52.2% | +2.34% | 80.4 | -28.2 | ok |
| AVOID | 85-89 | 12 | 12 | 41.7% | +2.44% | 86.1 | -44.4 | low n |
| AVOID | 90-100 | 72 | 72 | 70.8% | +4.95% | 93.2 | -22.4 | ok |
lookback 60d, maturation 5d, no-price 1, immature 11